Sun, Nov 1, 202610 companies coveredValued on closes of Oct 303 below our base value

Coverage

Liking a business is not the same as liking its price
NOW-44.4%7.7
ADBE-44.3%7.7
MSFT+27.2%7.3
NVDA+96.2%7.0
CRWD-16.5%6.7
GOOGL+33.5%6.5
AAPL+156.7%6.3
DDOG+72.6%5.7
NET+191.3%5.0
SNOW+87.3%4.3

Updates

What changed, and what it does to the thesis

No updates yet.

How we rate

Each company: a dated view, three valuation scenarios from its latest 10-K, a scorecard

  • Technology edge

    How hard is the product to build again?

  • Switching costs

    How hard is it for a customer to leave?

  • Growth runway

    How much room is left, and how fast can it be taken?

  • Profitability

    How much of each dollar of revenue becomes cash for owners?

  • Capital allocation

    Does management spend owners' money well, dilution included?

  • Valuation

    How does the price compare with our base value?

Five axes are judgment, each with its reason. Valuation is arithmetic: 5 at our base value, a point for every 10% the price sits below it. “Own below” is set at 80% of the base value. Every view stays as published; revisions say what changed.